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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the coach who engineered the biggest resurgence wins the award. However, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or simply the biggest upset.

Yet the latest field is profoundly different. The list of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference winners declining and longtime strugglers improving collectively. Under an typical season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and entertaining season, he's up against several other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the projected vote ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to create magic from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Virtually every bet – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the level of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, he would be the runaway favorite. But this isn't a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the leadership stuff, which was not a guarantee following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff blend of youth and experience, he hired newbies. From the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

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